2010 Senate Rankings, Part 1

I love Senate rankings, so here are mine. Ranked in terms of likelihood that the seat will switch parties in 2010. Part one includes the top three targets. Tomorrow I'll post #s 4, 5 and 6.

1. New Hampshire (currently R) : Rep Hodes (D) looks like a solid favorite to take over the seat held currently by former Commerce Secretary designate/ current Obama basher Judd Gregg (R), who says he will not run for reelection. My initial concern was that a bunch of Dems, salivating over an open seat in a state that went strongly for Obama, would beat eachother up in a tough primary. However, now that Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) has announced that she will not seek the seat, Hodes seems to be in good shape. I haven't heard anything about who might run on the Republican side, which could change things. Some people may be afraid of Sununu making a run at his old seat, but I don't see NH voters going back to Sununu again after kicking him out of office just 2 years earlier (by a lot).

2. Kentucky (currently R): Sen. Jim Bunning (R) is senile and legitimately crazy. Not like "oh, he's so conservative" type of crazy, but actually "doesn;t know what's going on" crazy. Add to that the fact that the Dems have a pretty deep bench of Congressmen and other statewide electeds jockeying to take down the former Hall of Fame pitcher-turned-Senator, and you'd think this would be a slam dunk for Dems. Not so. I really thought then state-senator Mongiardo was going to take down Bunning back in '04. You may recall that Bunning refused to debate Mongiardo in person, fueling speculation that he had Alzheimers. Over the past four and a half years, Bunning has failed to put the rumors to rest, making this a ripe pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

3. Pennsylvania (currently R): Tough situation for Sen. Arlen Specter (R). Not only is he a Republican in an increasingly blue state, he is being primaried from the right by former Club for Growth Prez Pat Toomey. I have a few thoughts on this race, a couple of which work in Specter's favor, a couple of which do not.
What he's got going for him:

• The Democrats rumored to be interested in entering the race are not particularly strong.
  
• Given that the general election is going to be easier to win than the Republican primary, Specter can spend the next 18 months hedging to the right, thereby closing some of the distance between him and Toomey on the ideological spectrum.

Why he's in trouble:

• The obvious: he has to win a primary decided by the most conservative members of the PA electorate and then come back around and win the general election in a purple-blue state
• Pennsylvania has become increasingly blue. Pundits often talk about FL, OH, and PA as the big battlegrounds on the electoral map, but it really isn;t the case anymore. Pennsylvania, like Michigan and othe rust belt states, were not even competitive in 2008 and would have been won by any generic Democrat.
  

There are my rankings for the top three Senate seats likely to change parties in 2010. Tomorrow I'll post #s 4, 5 and 6.